Payout forecast

Bitta Commission gives finance and sales management a forward view of commission cost. The Commission Forecast projects earnings, payment timing and liability over the coming periods, and Commission Anomalies flags unusual results for a reviewer. Both use fixed arithmetic and fixed rules that you can read on every row: a forecast is a projection of recorded earnings and open documents, and an alert states the rule, the threshold and the evidence that raised it. Nothing on these pages becomes an earning, a balance or a payment.

Before you start

• Switch on the Simulation and forecasting module in Commission Feature Management. While it is off, refreshing the forecast or running detection stops with BAA-FEATURE-OFF. See Optional modules.
• Commission Forecast, Commission Anomalies and Anomaly Rules open only for users with the Bitta Commission Setup Administrator permission set or a Finance (all participants) user scope. Other users get BAA-SIM-SCOPE.
• The forecast needs a commission period that covers the work date. Otherwise it stops with BAA-SIM-FORECAST-PERIOD. See Commission periods.

For a commission estimate on a single open sales quote, order or invoice, see Estimated commission.

Refresh the commission forecast

1. Search for Commission Forecast and open it. It shows the rows of the current forecast version.
2. Choose Refresh Forecast. The app appends a new forecast version built from the trailing three periods of earnings, the open pipeline and the current balance positions, over a six-period horizon, and marks it current.

3. Review the rows. Choose Show All Versions to compare with earlier versions, and Show Current Version to return. Earlier versions are never overwritten.

Read the forecast rows

Field	What it shows
Metric Code	EARNING (projected earnings), ELIGIBLE (when pipeline amounts become eligible) or LIABILITY (a position snapshot).
Forecast Source	RUN-RATE, PIPELINE or LEDGER.
Liability Bucket	For LIABILITY rows: EARNED, PROBABLE, HELD, PAYABLE, SCHEDULED or AT-RISK.
Period, Bucket Date	The commission period bucket and its first date.
Participant No.	The participant, or blank for company-level rows.
Expected Amount, Conservative Amount, Upside Amount	The expected amount and the low and high ends of the range.
Probability Percent, Confidence Percent	The probability applied and the confidence in the method for the row.
Liability Date, Cash Date	When the amount is expected to be recognized and to become eligible for payment.
Deferred Asset Date	When a capitalized commission cost for the row would start to release.
Explanation	How the row was derived.

How the forecast is calculated

The forecast is deterministic arithmetic over data already in Business Central:

• Run-rate rows. For each participant, the app averages the recorded earnings of the trailing three periods of the calendar. Each future period in the six-period horizon gets that average as the expected amount, 80 percent of it as the conservative amount and 120 percent as the upside. The current period adds the run-rate for the share of the period still remaining to what is already recorded. Confidence is 30 percent plus 20 percent per trailing period found, capped at 90.
• Pipeline rows. Every open sales quote, order and invoice with a salesperson is estimated per participant. The estimate is weighted by document type: 25 percent for a quote, 75 percent for an order and 100 percent for an unposted invoice. The conservative amount is half the weighted amount and the upside is the unweighted estimate. ELIGIBLE rows place the same amounts in the period of the expected eligible date under the component's payment policy.
• Liability rows. A snapshot of balance positions: earned (pending, eligible, held and payable), probable (the weighted pipeline), held, payable (eligible amounts available for settlement), scheduled (payable amounts reserved in settlements) and at risk (pending amounts awaiting payment triggers plus recoverable balances).

Review anomalies

The anomaly detector checks recent results against deterministic rules and raises alerts for a reviewer. Alerts never change money.

1. Open Commission Anomalies and choose Run Detection. Every enabled rule runs over the last 30 days, and the message reports how many new alerts were raised. An existing alert is never raised twice.

2. Review each alert: Severity Code, Rule, Participant No., Earning Entry No. or Source Fact Entry No., Observed Value against Expected Value, Lower Bound and Upper Bound, Reason and Comparison.
3. Decide. Acknowledge marks the alert as reviewed and routed. Dismiss as False Positive marks it as a false positive. Apply Proposed Disposition applies what the detector proposed: INVESTIGATE, ACKNOWLEDGE or DISMISS.
4. Choose Open Earning to go to the earning an alert refers to, and correct it through the normal correction, dispute or settlement workflow.

The alert and its evidence are kept whatever you decide.

Anomaly rules

Choose Anomaly Rules to tune the detectors. Add Default Rules adds any missing default rule with its standard thresholds. Changing a rule raises its version, so past alerts keep the threshold that produced them.

Detector	Flags	Default severity
OUTLIER-AMOUNT	An earning above the mean plus 3 standard deviations of the participant's prior earnings for the same component over 180 days, once at least 5 prior earnings exist.	HIGH
DUPLICATE-SOURCE	Source facts with the same customer, salesperson, posting date and net amount under different document numbers.	MEDIUM
NEGATIVE-BALANCE	A participant whose owed position is below zero.	HIGH
UNUSUAL-RATE	An effective rate outside the span of the rate table.	HIGH
UNEXPECTED-ZERO	A zero earning although the base moved.	MEDIUM
MISSING-CREDIT	An included sale with a salesperson but no credit entry.	MEDIUM
ABRUPT-CHANGE	Period earnings above 2 times, or below half, of the previous period when the previous period reached at least 100.	LOW

For each rule you can set Enabled, Threshold Factor (standard deviations for outliers, tolerance for rates, multiple for abrupt change), Minimum Amount, Minimum History Count, History Lookback Days, Severity and a default owner.

Run the forecast and detection on a schedule

Both also run from the job queue. On Commission Source Capture Setup, Register Scanner Jobs creates the entries Bitta Commission payout and liability forecast refresh and Bitta Commission anomaly scan, together with the other extended scanners, in On Hold status. Review their schedule and set them to Ready. See Job queue monitoring.

For what the module does not do, see Known limitations.

What's next

Draft plan components from plain language: AI plan assistant.